The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

The odds a U.S. recession will someday be determined to have begun between January 2025 and January 2026 have dropped to a little higher than a one-in-four chance. The main factor lowering the ...

The chances that the U.S. will experience a recession in 2025 have increased because of the tariffs it has implemented, Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific at Pimco, said at ...

Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, says a US recession in 2025 is unlikely. The economy grew faster than expected in 2024, driven by strong consumer spending. Key risks for 2025 include tariffs, ...

(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs on Thursday trimmed its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 35% for the next twelve months on easing uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariff policies after the U ...